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Introduction to Inflation (inflation 101)

GeneralEdward Kiledjian

A sustained increase in the price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time is known as inflation. When the price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation reflects a reduction in the purchasing power per unit of money – a loss of real value in the medium of exchange and unit of account within the economy. The opposite of inflation is deflation, a sustained decrease in the price level of goods and services.

Inflation occurs when too much money is chasing too few goods and services. This excess demand for goods and services puts upward pressure on prices. Inflation can also occur when the government print new money.

Inflation is generally considered a bad thing because it erodes the purchasing power of money. As inflation goes up, every dollar you have buys less and less. This is why salary increases are generally tied to inflation rates – so that people can maintain their standard of living as prices go up.

However, there is such a thing as good inflation. Good inflation is when prices rise because the economy is doing well and there is more demand for goods and services. This kind of inflationary pressure is generally considered healthy for an economy.

How is inflation measured?

In the United States, inflation is measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The CPI measures the prices of a basket of goods and services that consumers commonly purchase.

The inflation rate is the percentage change in the CPI from one month to the next or year-over-year. For example, if the CPI were 100 in January and 101 in February, inflation would be 1%.

How to stop inflation?

The most common way to stop inflation is by raising interest rates. When interest rates go up, it becomes more expensive for people to borrow money, slowing down spending and reducing the amount of money chasing goods and services. This usually leads to a reduction in inflation.

Fiscal policy can also be used to fight inflation. If the government cuts spending or raises taxes, it will reduce the amount of money in the economy and help to stop inflation.

Monetary policy is usually the most effective way to stop inflation. This is when the central bank (like the Federal Reserve in the US) takes action to slow down the money supply. This makes it more expensive for banks to borrow money, which makes it more costly for people to borrow money. This slows down spending and inflation.

US Credit Rating to be downgraded by Fitch Ratings?

Credit, Economy, Fitch Ratings, Rating, USAEdward Kiledjian

When S&P downgraded the US Credit, everyone argued that it was just one misguided company. Now we learn that Fitch Ratings has given the US government until 2013 (aka after the US elections) to clean up its act and come to the market with a concrete plan to address their deficit problems.

The agency said "The negative outlook reflects Fitch's declining confidence that timely fiscal measures necessary to place U.S. public finances on a sustainable path and secure the U.S. AAA sovereign rating will be forthcoming." They also said that there is a greater than 50% chance that the downgrade will happen.

Never has a US election been more important to the future of their country. If the population chooses to ignore free market economics, and instead encourage socialist policies, then the result will be the serious devaluation of their currency and a substantial shift in world economic power. Could a big knock against the US dollar be the shock that finally pushes the Euro as the dominant world reserve currency?

It is important to remember that Russia and China have already tabled recommendations to replace the world reserve currency (currently the US$) with a new issue controlled by the International monetary fund, which would be benchmarked against a basket of currencies. Zhou Xiaochuan, the China Central Bank Governor, has said this is needed to address "the obsolescent unipolar world economic order." China own a large portion of outstanding US debt. What would happen if Fitch downgraded the US debt and China decided to exchange its US bonds for a more balanced basket? It could be disastrous to the US economy.

US thanksgiving black friday sales record set

Behavior, BlackFriday, Economy, Holidays, IBM, Marketing, comScore, salesEdward Kiledjian

Although the final numbers arent in yet, many analysts are already predicting a record year for Black Friday sales. IBM is predicting a 24.3% increase sales over last year for black friday sales.

ComScore says online sales grew 26% (compared to 2010) totalling $816 million.

ShopperTrak said : “This is the largest year-over-year gain in ShopperTrak’s National Retail Sales Estimate for Black Friday since the 8.3 percent increase we saw between 2007 and 2006.  Still, it’s just one day.  It remains to be seen whether consumers will sustain this behavior through the holiday shopping season. ”

Is it time to become an optimist about the economy? Not yet but its a good start. LEt's see how sales hold up through the holiday period.