The Delphi technique is a structured method for gathering and analyzing opinions and forecasts data from a group of experts. It is named after the Delphi Oracle, which was developed by the Rand Corporation in the 1950s as a way to forecast the impact of technology on society.
The Delphi technique is often used to forecast or predict future events or trends. It is particularly useful when there is a lack of data or consensus, or when it is difficult to gather input from a large number of people.
The Delphi technique consists of several steps:
Identify the issue or problem that needs to be addressed.
Identify a panel of experts with knowledge or experience related to the issue. It is important to ensure that the panel is diverse and represents a range of viewpoints.
Create a questionnaire or set of questions the experts will be asked to answer. These questions should be specific and focused on the issue at hand.
Administer the questionnaire to the panel of experts. This can be done in person, via email, or through an online survey platform.
Collect and analyze the responses from the experts. This can involve creating summary statistics or identifying common themes or trends in the responses.
Feedback on the analysis results to the experts and ask them to revise their responses based on the new information. This process is repeated until there is a sufficient consensus or agreement among the experts.
Here are two examples of how the Delphi technique could be used:
Example 1: A company is considering introducing a new product line and wants to forecast the potential demand for the products. The company identifies a panel of experts in the industry and administers a questionnaire asking them to provide estimates of the potential demand for the products. The company then collects and analyzes the responses and provides feedback to the experts. This process is repeated until there is a sufficient level of consensus among the experts.
Example 2: A government agency is trying to forecast the potential impact of a new policy on employment rates in the region. The agency identifies a panel of economists and other experts and administers a questionnaire asking them to provide estimates of the potential impact of the policy on employment rates. The agency then collects and analyzes the responses and provides feedback to the experts. This process is repeated until there is a sufficient level of consensus among the experts.
Keywords: Delphi technique, expert opinion, forecast, prediction, consensus, questionnaire, analysis, employment, policy impact